| Pre-Market Briefing | October 28, 2026
Elliott Waves Trades · PavlosD |
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Fed Day: Tech Bid Meets 5% Yields and $100 Oil
Nasdaq leads, Dow flat as chips and data centers rally ahead of the 2PM FOMC | 08:45 ET |
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| MARKET INDICES |
| INDEX | LEVEL | CHG | % CHG | | S&P 500 | 7,740 | +17 | +0.22% | | Nasdaq | 29,763 | +112 | +0.38% | | Dow Jones | 52,377 | -0.53 | -0.00% | | Russell 2000 | 2,819.67 | +0.80 | +0.03% |
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| COMMODITIES & RATES |
| ASSET | PRICE | CHG | % CHG | | VIX | 17.42 | -0.10 | -0.6% | | WTI Oil | $101.80 | +1.89 | +1.9% | | Gold | $4,067 | -7.30 | -0.2% | | 10Y Yield | 5.00% | +0.01 | +0.1bps | | Brent | $111.26 | +1.85 | +1.7% |
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| PRE-MARKET MOVERS |
| 🟢 LEADERS | | SYMBOL | PRICE | %CHG | | XEL | $81.00 | +3.67% | | EQIX | $999.38 | +3.28% | | MU | $958.50 | +3.20% | | DLR | $179.01 | +2.57% | | CAT | $730.74 | +2.44% | | LI | $11.51 | +2.22% | | KLAC | $156.73 | +2.00% | | LRCX | $245.36 | +1.87% | | PSA | $312.47 | +1.79% | | ARM | $230.65 | +1.79% |
| | 🔴 LAGGARDS | | SYMBOL | PRICE | %CHG | | ENPH | $23.76 | -20.16% | | NXPI | $232.27 | -8.38% | | HOOD | $88.48 | -6.43% | | CME | $293.48 | -4.73% | | ON | $76.84 | -2.32% | | NOW | $151.30 | -2.25% | | MCO | $474.00 | -2.16% | | COIN | $157.65 | -2.14% | | AIG | $79.58 | -1.91% | | SPOT | $545.00 | -1.88% |
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| TODAY'S PRE-MARKET BRIEF |
Futures are leaning higher into Fed day. Nasdaq futures are up 0.38% to 29,763 and S&P futures are up 0.22% to 7,740. The Dow is flat, and the Russell is barely positive at 2,819. Semis and AI infrastructure are carrying the tape: MU is up 3.2%, EQIX 3.3% and DLR 2.6%, with AMD up 1.6% and GOOGL up 1.1%. Underneath, it is not a clean risk-on morning. ENPH has collapsed 20%, NXPI is down 8.4% and ON is off 2.3%, which shows clear weakness in analog and industrial chips. HOOD and CME are bleeding as well. The FOMC decision lands at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30. The setup is uncomfortable: the 10-year yield sits right at 5.00%, WTI is up 1.9% to $101.80 and Brent is at $111. That combination keeps the inflation narrative alive and limits how dovish the Fed can sound. Any hawkish lean on the oil pass-through risks a yield breakout above 5%, which is the most direct threat to high-multiple tech. Watch the 10-year at 5.00%. A sustained push above it pressures equities, while a rejection fuels the next leg up. VIX at 17.42 is complacent for a Fed day, so expect a compressed morning range and an expanded afternoon. Note the split inside semis: AI memory and compute (MU, AMD, NVDA) are strong while analog and auto chips (NXPI, ON) are breaking down. Treat that divergence as a late-cycle warning sign. |
| KEY CATALYSTS TODAY |
10:30 AMEIA Crude Inventories
WTI is above $100. A draw extends the oil bid and pushes inflation fears into the Fed decision. | 02:00 PMFOMC Rate Decision
Statement language on energy-driven inflation and the 5% 10-year sets the afternoon trend. | 02:30 PMFed Chair Press Conference
Volatility expansion window. Expect whipsaws before the real directional move. |
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| KEY LEVELS — Core Tickers |
| TICKER | CLOSE | CURRENT | % CHG | KEY LVL | BIAS | | SPY | $769.66 | $771.39 | +0.22% | $768 | ▲ BULL | | QQQ | $721.25 | $723.93 | +0.37% | $720 | ▲ BULL | | AAPL | $347.10 | $346.21 | -0.26% | $345 | – NEUTRAL | | AMD | $560.26 | $569.45 | +1.64% | $560 | ▲ BULL | | AMZN | $253.10 | $253.09 | -0.00% | $250 | – NEUTRAL | | GOOGL | $320.58 | $324.24 | +1.14% | $320 | ▲ BULL | | META | $620.19 | $620.95 | +0.12% | $615 | – NEUTRAL | | MSFT | $531.33 | $529.90 | -0.27% | $528 | – NEUTRAL | | NVDA | $217.94 | $219.65 | +0.78% | $217 | ▲ BULL | | TSLA | $407.46 | $410.68 | +0.79% | $405 | – NEUTRAL |
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| 📌 Game Plan SPY is working a minor wave (iii) higher off the recent swing low, and $768 is the line in the sand. Pre-Fed, fade extremes and keep size light. The genuine trend move typically shows up after the 2:30 PM presser, once the initial knee-jerk spike is retraced. Favor long exposure in AI leaders on dips while SPY holds $768. SPY holds above $773 after the FOMC: that confirms wave (iii) extension, with targets at $778, then $782. QQQ above $726 opens $732.
SPY loses $766 on a closing basis: that suggests a wave (iv) correction is underway, targeting $760, then $755. QQQ below $718 targets $710. ⚠️ A 10-year yield above 5.00% plus $100+ oil is a stagflation cocktail. A hawkish Fed surprise could flip this morning's bid fast. Do not chase the open, and respect the 2:00 to 3:00 PM whipsaw window. |
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| For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. © 2026 EWT — PavlosD |