Weekly Recap · Daily Briefing
Daily Recap

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Good morning. It's Triple Witching Friday and the S&P 500 is fighting for its life at the 200-day moving average. Futures are pointing to a cautious open — S&P +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.06%, Dow +0.19% — a modest recovery attempt after the index shed 1.52% over the past two sessions. The S&P closed yesterday at 6,606, just below its 200-DMA of 6,616 — the first close below that level since May 2025. If it can't reclaim it today, the technical picture turns decisively bearish.

The overnight session was dominated by two conflicting signals. On one hand, Israeli PM Netanyahu suggested a potential de-escalation, saying Israel is "helping the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz" and that the war may end sooner than people think. On the other, Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility (destroying 17% of the country's export capacity), hit two Kuwaiti refineries, and targeted Saudi Aramco infrastructure. Brent briefly spiked to $119 before settling at $108.65. The energy war is far from over. Meanwhile, Micron smashed earnings (EPS $12.20 vs $8.66 est.) but stock fell 3.9% on $25B capex concerns — a signal that even blowout AI fundamentals can't overcome the macro headwinds.

MACRO DASHBOARD

TRIPLE WITCHING — WHAT TO EXPECT

Today is Triple Witching — the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options. This quarterly event typically triggers a massive surge in trading volume and intraday price swings as institutional investors roll over positions. In the current environment, this adds gasoline to an already volatile fire.

• Expect elevated volume — historically 2–3x normal turnover. The final hour of trading tends to be the most chaotic.
• Pin risk around key strikes. Watch the 6,600 and 6,650 levels on the S&P — there's likely significant open interest at those strikes.
• Options market makers will be delta-hedging aggressively, which can amplify moves in either direction.
• With the S&P sitting right at its 200-DMA, the expiration flows could tip the balance. A close above 6,616 = bulls survive. Below = technical bear market confirmed.

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS — WAR ESCALATION VS. DE-ESCALATION

The overnight session produced the most dramatic oil price action since the war began. Brent crude spiked to $119 — near a 3.5-year high — before collapsing back to $108 on de-escalation headlines. The whipsaw tells the story: markets are desperate for a resolution but keep getting hit with fresh escalation.

Bearish (Escalation):

• Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility with missiles, destroying 17% of the country's LNG export capacity. Shell's Pearl GTL plant was also hit, halting 140,000 bpd of output.
• Two Kuwaiti refineries (Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah) were hit by drones. Saudi Aramco's SAMREF refinery in Yanbu was also targeted.
• European natural gas prices surged 24% as the LNG supply chain faces structural damage.
• Goldman Sachs warns equities "have not priced in enough risk premium for a more lasting shock."

Bullish (De-Escalation):

• Netanyahu said Israel is helping the U.S. reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that "the war may end sooner than people think." Iran has lost the ability to enrich uranium and make ballistic missiles, he claimed.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. may release 140 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian oil stranded on tankers, plus additional SPR release possible.
• Trump warned Iran that any further attacks on Qatar would prompt destruction of South Pars gas field "with strength and power Iran has never witnessed."

Bottom line: the de-escalation rhetoric is getting louder, but the physical damage to energy infrastructure is real and lasting. Even if the war ends tomorrow, repairs to Ras Laffan and other facilities will take months.

MICRON EARNINGS — BLOWOUT NUMBERS, STOCK FALLS

Micron reported after the bell Thursday and absolutely crushed expectations:

Despite the blowout, shares fell 3.9% after-hours. The culprit: management announced capex would exceed $25 billion in 2026, sparking margin concerns. Supply is so tight Micron can't fulfill key customer demand — a double-edged sword.

Key read-through: AI infrastructure spending is accelerating, but the market is punishing capex-heavy names. If Micron can't rally on 196% revenue growth, sentiment is weaker than it appears.

PRE-MARKET MOVERS

KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS — THE LINE IN THE SAND

The S&P 500 closed at 6,606 yesterday — below its 200-day moving average of 6,616 for the first time since May 2025. The Dow already lost its 200-DMA on Wednesday. Today's close is critical:

TODAY'S CALENDAR

RISK MANAGEMENT — TRIPLE WITCHING RULES

Triple Witching + 200-DMA battle + geopolitical whipsaw = maximum uncertainty. The rules:

1. Size down. Today is about survival, not heroics. Reduce position sizes by at least 50% until the picture clears.
2. Avoid the first 30 minutes and the last hour. These are the highest-volume, most-volatile windows during Triple Witching. Let the institutions fight it out.
3. Watch 6,616 on the S&P like a hawk. A close above = relief rally potential next week. A close below = expect further downside to 6,500 or lower.
4. Oil headlines will dominate. Netanyahu's de-escalation comments are the most bullish development in weeks. But Iran is still striking targets. Trade the reaction, not the prediction.
5. Gold and crypto are getting liquidated. This is forced selling from margin calls, not fundamental — be aware of spillover into equities.
6. Cash is king heading into the weekend. With the S&P 500 rebalance Monday and geopolitical risk over the weekend, carrying heavy exposure into the close is not worth it.