📉 Weekly Market Recap
📊 Indexes Performance % Change YTD
DJIA -3.04%
S&P -3.77%
Nasdaq Composite -7.16%
S&P MidCap -5.60%
Russell 20002 -9.29%
📰 Market Overview: Cautious Optimism on Trade Developments
Markets traded mixed this week as hopes for tariff de-escalation battled ongoing macro uncertainty. While the Dow and major large-cap indices ended modestly lower, small- and mid-cap stocks outperformed, extending their winning streak to a fifth consecutive week.
The S&P 500 broke its nine-day rally early in the week but rebounded midweek on reports of upcoming trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in Switzerland. Optimism was further fueled by the U.S. and UK signing the first new trade agreement since the Trump-era tariffs launched in April.
🏛 Federal Reserve Holds Steady
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, signaling a "wait and see" stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged rising uncertainty and warned of potential tension between inflation and employment mandates, noting tariffs may add pressure to both.
Market expectations for a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting declined, based on CME FedWatch data.
📈 Sector Highlights & Economic Data
ISM Services PMI for April rose to 51.6%, its 10th straight month of expansion. Notably, the Prices Index surged to 65.1%, the highest in over two years—largely attributed to tariff-induced cost pressures.
Manufacturing PMI, reported earlier, showed contraction for the second month in a row as demand and employment weakened.
Treasury yields climbed midweek in response to the Fed’s stance and trade optimism, pushing bonds lower overall.
📌 Stock Spotlight
Apple $AAPL (▲ 0.53%) rebounded Friday, recovering early-week tariff jitters. The company remains vulnerable to U.S.-China trade frictions.
JPMorgan $JPM (▼ 0.15%) topped Q1 revenue estimates at $46.01B vs. $44.11B expected. CEO Jamie Dimon warned of “extreme turbulence” due to tariffs and geopolitical risks.
Nvidia $NVDA (▼ 0.61%) led “Magnificent Seven” stocks for the week, supported by AI momentum and midweek market strength.
Tesla $TSLA (▲ 4.72%) dipped on China website changes and Cybertruck pricing adjustments.
Frontier $ULCC (▲ 4.02%) declined sharply after cutting Q1 outlook and pulling full-year guidance due to weak demand.
🏦 Big Bank Commentary
BlackRock $BLK CEO Larry Fink believes the U.S. is "very close to, if not already in, a recession," citing policy uncertainty as a drag on growth.
Morgan Stanley $MS (▼ 0.15%) beat on both EPS and revenue but echoed caution on steel and industrial trends.
Wells Fargo $WFC (▼ 0.63%) posted a 16% earnings rise and backed resolving trade barriers quickly.
🛒 Sector Check-In
Home Improvement: BofA data shows consumer spending dropped 2% YoY in March, following an 8% fall in February. Shift from DIY to pro services evident. $HD (▼ 0.59%)
Retail: JPMorgan expects most retailers to feel margin pressure from tariffs, with grocers better protected due to domestic sourcing.
Autos: Stellantis $STLA (▼ 0.51%) global Q1 shipments fell 9% YoY due to slower production and holiday downtime.
Steel: Morgan Stanley warns steel prices may fall to $800/ton as post-tariff inventories normalize.
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– PavlosD | Elliott Waves Trades
